BBVA Research weighs economic impact of U.S. 2020 presidential election

HOUSTON, July 22, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — The BBVA Research team published its insights into the economic impact of possible presidential…

HOUSTON, July 22, 2020 /PRNewswire/ — The BBVA Research team published its insights into the economic impact of possible presidential election outcomes in 2020, noting that a divided government is unlikely to make significant policy changes, resulting in a continuation of the status quo in terms of growth.

Authored by a team of economists led by BBVA Chief Economist Nathaniel Karp, the white paper indicates that, given the pressing challenges facing the nation, the 2020 election could be a major turning point in history. As indicated in the team’s analysis, the 2020 presidential election is expected to be a litmus test for how demographic and cultural differences on fundamental political values like the role of government, individual freedoms and socioeconomic and environmental challenges will determine how people vote.

Additional details in the report include a ranking of key voter issues, including the gap in preference by party designation, as well as the impact of other issues likely to influence election results such as likeability, economic conditions, voter turnout and potential third party candidacies.

The report further outlines four possible economic outcomes of the November general elections:

  • Blue Wave, assuming that Democrats take control of the White House, the Senate and the House
  • Purple Rain, in which Democrats take the White House and retain the House, while the GOP retains the Senate
  • Red Tide envisions the GOP maintaining the Senate and the White House and retaking the House
  • Pretty in Pink scenario is the status quo: the GOP retains the White House and Senate, while the Democrats hold on to the House

Led by Nathaniel Karp, BBVA USA’s research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA USA operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVANews_USA.

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About BBVA

BBVA Group

BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico, it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States. It is also the leading shareholder in Turkey’s Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers’ real needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.


In the U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 641 branches, including 330 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 44 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico. The bank ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2018.


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